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It is also likely that climate change will have severe, direct effects on humans. Thermal expansion of seawater alone is expected to cause a rise of 0.09 to 0.37 m over the next century (IPCC, 2001). This modest sounding rise is enough to threaten many coastal cities. It is also predicted that storms, such as monsoons and hurricanes, may increase in number and intensity as a result of global warming (IPCC, 2001). Global warming can affect land-based agriculture in certain areas by changing precipitation. Desertification is a major threat in areas such as the southwestern United States (IPCC 2001). Increased carbon dioxide levels will also alter the growth rates of crops and weeds. In certain environments, changes in the productivity of traditional agriculture could lead to a changes in fish demand.
Range of future temperature predictions made by different models (IPCC, 2001)
There is a large amount of uncertainty in the future of climate change. Although predictions can be made about what will happen, no one is sure exactly how global warming will effect the oceans and fish populations. However, the climate change should be an important consideration in any plan for fisheries management. It is important to be aware that climate will not change uniformly over the entire globe. For instance, the effects of global warming are likely to be more pronounced in the high latitude regions. Thus, any recommendations must be designed specifically for different regions of the world. Of course, such customizations are reliant on accurate, comprehensive data, which is often not availible. Hence, we propose that a global system be set up for collecting and analyzing data as global warming progresses. Many types of biological, physical, and geological data are needed to better predict the future climate of various regions. Also, more work has to be done to quantitatively determine how fish populations react to climate change. As these data are monitored and studied over longer time periods, trends may begin to appear which shed light on these critical questions.
One possible method of reacting to a specific negative effect of climate change - decreasing natural phytoplankton levels and debasing the ocean food chain - is "ocean fertilization" with Iron. This allows high levels of phytoplankton growth in areas deficient in this nutrient (Jones & Young, 1997). Due to the unknown negative effects of this technique in large amounts (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002), we do not advise this method only in very specific, controlled cases to determine its benefits and effects.
Range of future temperature predictions made by different models (IPCC, 2001)
There is a large amount of uncertainty in the future of climate change. Although predictions can be made about what will happen, no one is sure exactly how global warming will effect the oceans and fish populations. However, the climate change should be an important consideration in any plan for fisheries management. It is important to be aware that climate will not change uniformly over the entire globe. For instance, the effects of global warming are likely to be more pronounced in the high latitude regions. Thus, any recommendations must be designed specifically for different regions of the world. Of course, such customizations are reliant on accurate, comprehensive data, which is often not availible. Hence, we propose that a global system be set up for collecting and analyzing data as global warming progresses. Many types of biological, physical, and geological data are needed to better predict the future climate of various regions. Also, more work has to be done to quantitatively determine how fish populations react to climate change. As these data are monitored and studied over longer time periods, trends may begin to appear which shed light on these critical questions.
Once trends have been determined the plan for fishery conservation would then be modified in order to counteract whatever effects were being caused by the climate change. For instance, with many of the predicted changes, the ecosystem could be able to support a smaller population of fish than it does currently. As soon as this realization comes about, restrictions must be changed to fit the reality of the situation. These changes could be made to a number of different restrictions such as technological restrictions, taxes, or closed areas, but we propose it would be most beneficial to have as direct an effect as possible on the fish populations. For this reason we propose using quotas as our main form of restriction. This would allow for the most accurate control over the number of fish we are taking out of the environment, and allow the restrictions to be changed more easily when a new trend in climate change is found. The most important aspect of the plan with respect to climate change is that it has to modifiable, so that we can be constantly improving our approach as we improve our understanding of climate changes effects. If we are to this approach is most likely valid for other aspects of this problem as well. This approach, however, would require a great improvement in our understanding of fish population dynamics. Therefore, it would be prudent to apply other restrictions until this point is reaches. Once trends have been determined the plan for fishery conservation would then be modified in order to counteract whatever effects were being caused by the climate change. For instance, with many of the predicted changes, the ecosystem could be able to support a smaller population of fish than it does currently. As soon as this realization comes about, restrictions must be changed to fit the reality of the situation. These changes could be made to a number of different restrictions such as technological restrictions, taxes, or closed areas, but we propose it would be most beneficial to have as direct an effect as possible on the fish populations. For this reason we propose using quotas as our main form of restriction. This would allow for the most accurate control over the number of fish we are taking out of the environment, and allow the restrictions to be changed more easily when a new trend in climate change is found. The most important aspect of the plan with respect to climate change is that it has to modifiable, so that we can be constantly improving our approach as we improve our understanding of climate changes effects. If we are to this approach is most likely valid for other aspects of this problem as well. This approach, however, would require a great improvement in our understanding of fish population dynamics. Therefore, it would be prudent to apply other restrictions until this point is reaches.
One possible method of reacting to a specific negative effect of climate change - decreasing natural phytoplankton levels and debasing the ocean food chain - is "ocean fertilization" with Iron. This allows high levels of phytoplankton growth in areas deficient in this nutrient (Jones & Young, 1997). Due to the unknown negative effects of this technique in large amounts (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002), we do not advise this method only in very specific, controlled cases to determine its benefits and effects.
While we believe it to be beyond the scope of our project, we realize that it is also necessary to slow the progress of anthropogenic global warming. This aspect of global warming, however, is being extensively researched by many other groups. For more information on the subject we suggest visiting The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's website, (http://www.ipcc.ch/).
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