"We depend on the oceans---for food, jobs, recreation and solace. Ocean currents circulate the energy and water that regulate the earth's climate and weather and thus affect many aspects of the human experience, whether we live on the nation's coasts or its heartland" (Pew).
Climate Change
FirstlyFirst, we acknowledge that the issue of global climate change is outside the scope of Mission 2011's proposed solutions. However, this is a matter of such global importance and potential impact that to not discuss the issue at all, even briefly, would have been negligent. Furthermore, we emphasize that slowing or stopping the progress of anthropogenic global warming is necessary. For more information on this topic we suggest visiting the website of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at <http://www.ipcc.ch
>.
Over the past century and a half, the earth has seen a significant rise in average global temperatures. Studies show that average surface temperatures have risen at the rate of approximately 0.1°C/decade, which is significant when compared to estimates of historical changes (IPCC, 2001). Whether this temperature change is primarily a result of anthropogenic influences such as the emission of greenhouse gases, or of natural fluctuations in climate, global warming will have a profound effect upon the oceans and should therefore be of great concern to anyone with a stake in global fisheries. It is also very likely that global warming will accelerate in the near future due to positive feedback mechanisms (IPCC, 2001). Climate change is quite difficult to monitor, and even more difficult to predict accurately. Despite this, research on current systems as well as research into past global warming events provides us with an idea of what can be expected in future years. Through knowledge of the general trends of climate change, an understanding of their effects on fisheries can begin to be developed.
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Once trends have been determined the plan for fishery conservation would then be modified in order to counteract whatever effects were being caused by the climate change. For instance, with many of the predicted changes, the ecosystem could be able to support a smaller population of fish than it does currently. As soon as this realization comes about, restrictions must be changed to fit the reality of the situation. These changes could be made to a number of different restrictions such as technological restrictions, taxes, or closed areas, but we propose it would be most beneficial to have as direct an effect as possible on the fish populations. For this reason we propose using quotas as our main form of restriction. This would allow for the most accurate control over the number of fish we are taking out of the environment, and allow the restrictions to be changed more easily when a new trend in climate change is found. The most important aspect of the plan with respect to climate change is that it has to modifiable, so that we can be constantly improving our approach as we improve our understanding of climate changes effects. If we are to this approach is most likely valid for other aspects of this problem as well. This approach, however, would require a great improvement in our understanding of fish population dynamics. Therefore, it would be prudent to apply other restrictions until this point is reaches. While we believe it to be beyond the scope of our project, we realize that it is also necessary to slow the progress of anthropogenic global warming. This aspect of global warming, however, is being extensively researched by many other groups. For more information on the subject we suggest visiting The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's website, (http://www.ipcc.ch/).
Here are some predictions for possible future effects of climate change on certain areas:
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