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First, we acknowledge that the issue of global climate change is outside the scope of Mission 2011's proposed solutions. However, this is a matter of such global importance and potential impact that to not discuss the issue at all, even briefly, would have been negligent. Furthermore, we emphasize that slowing or stopping the progress of anthropogenic global warming is necessary. For more information on this topic we suggest visiting the website of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at <http://www.ipcc.ch>.
The Effects of Global Warming
Over the past century and a half, the earth has seen a significant rise in average global temperatures (see Figure 1). Studies show that average surface temperatures have risen at the rate of approximately 0.1°C/decade, which is significant when compared to estimates of historical changes (IPCC, 2001). Regardless of whether this temperature increase is anthropogenic or natural, global warming will have a profound effect upon the oceans and should therefore be of great concern to anyone with a stake in global fisheries. It is also very likely that global warming will accelerate in the near future due to positive feedback mechanisms (IPCC, 2001). Climate change is quite difficult to monitor, and even more difficult to predict accurately. Despite this, research on current systems as well as research into past global warming events provides a general idea of what can be expected in future years. Knowledge of these general trends and historical examples allows an understanding of their effects on fisheries to be developed.
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Figure 1. Annual anomalies of global average land-surface air temperature (Jones et al., 2001).
Figure 2. Projected surface temperature changes by 2099. ("Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis," 2001)
Climate change has the potential to cause significant changes in water chemistry, especially with regards to oxygen solubility. As seawater warms, its ability to dissolve gases decreases dramatically. One of these gases is oxygen, which of course essential to most living things for respiration (Harley, 2006). Geological records from past global warming events has shown evidence of severe, large-scale hypoxic episodes (Bralower, 2002). A significant drop in dissolved oxygen levels would detrimentally influence species worldwide. Another critical area of seawater chemistry that will likely be affected by global warming is the carbonate buffering system. The ocean have an enormous capacity to take up carbon dioxide. However, as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, the equilibrium of the carbonate-bicarbonate-carbonic acid cycle will be increasingly shifted toward the acidic side of the equation, lowering the pH of the water (Harley, 2006). Ocean acidification would have detrimental effects on sea life, especially important calcareous primary producers, such as coccolithophores.
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It is also likely that climate change will have severe, direct effects on humans. Thermal expansion of seawater alone is expected to cause a rise of between 0.09 and 0.37 meters over the next century (IPCC, 2001). This modest sounding rise is nevertheless enough to threaten many coastal cities and in some cases entire island nations. It is also predicted that storms, such as monsoons and hurricanes, may increase in number and intensity as a result of global warming (IPCC, 2001). Global warming can affect land-based agriculture in certain areas by changing patterns of precipitation. For example, desertification is a major threat in areas such as the southwestern United States, while excessive flooding is the threat in other regions (IPCC 2001). Increased carbon dioxide levels will also alter the growth rates of crops and weeds. In certain environments, changes in the productivity of traditional, land agriculture could lead to a changes in fish demand.
One possible method of reacting to a specific negative effect of climate change - decreasing natural phytoplankton levels and debasing the ocean food chain - is "ocean fertilization" with Ironfinely powerdered. This allows high levels of phytoplankton growth in areas deficient in this nutrient (Jones & Young, 1997). Due to the unknown negative effects of this technique in large amounts There are significant technical problems related to this approach. Also, the large-scale effectiveness of iron fertilization is extremely speculative (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002). Hence, we do not advise this method only in very specific, controlled cases to determine its benefits and effects.
until significantly more research has been conducted.
Recommendations:
Figure 2. Range of future temperature predictions made by different models (IPCC, 2001)
Figure 3. Projected surface temperature changes by 2099. ("Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis," 2001)
There is a large amount of uncertainty in the future of climate change (See Figure 3). Although predictions can be made about what will happen, no one is sure exactly there is no way to know for certain how global warming will effect the oceans and fish populations. However, the climate change should be mustbe an important consideration in any plan for fisheries management plan. It is important to be aware that climate will not change uniformly over the entire globe (See Figure 2). For instance, the effects of global warming are likely to be more pronounced in the high latitude regions. Thus, any recommendations must be designed tailored specifically for different regions a given region of the world. Of course, such customizations are reliant on accurate, comprehensive data, which is often not availibleavailable. Hence, we propose that a global system be set up for collecting and analyzing data as on global warming progressesand related processes. Many types of biological, physical, and geological data are needed to better predict the future climate of various regions. Also, in particular, more work has to be done to quantitatively determine how fish populations react to climate change. As these data are monitored and studied over longer time periods, trends may begin to appear which shed light on these critical questions.
Once trends have been determined the plan for fishery conservation would then be modified in order to counteract whatever effects were being caused by the climate change. For instance, with given many of the predicted changes, the ecosystem could ecosystems would be able to support a smaller population of fish than it currently does currently. As soon as this realization comes about, restrictions must be changed to fit the reality of the situation. These changes . Management plans must be flexible enough to respond quickly to such new information. Modifications could be made to a number of different restrictions areas, such as technological restrictions, taxes, or closed areas. Again, but we propose it would be most beneficial to have as direct an effect as possible on the fish populations. For this reason we propose using quotas as our main form of restriction. This would allow for the most accurate control over the number of fish we are taking out of the environment, and allow the restrictions to be changed more easily when a new trend in climate change is found. The most we emphasize that the most important aspect of the plan with respect to climate change is that it has to modifiable, so that we can be constantly improving our approach as we improve our understanding of climate changes effects . If we are to this approach is most likely valid for other aspects of this problem as well. This approach, however, would require a great improvement in our understanding of fish population dynamics. Therefore, it would be prudent to apply other restrictions until this point is reaches.of global climate change.
Examples
Here are some predictions for possible future effects of climate change on certain areas:
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