"We depend on the oceans---for food, jobs, recreation and solace. Ocean currents circulate the energy and water that regulate the earth's climate and weather and thus affect many aspects of the human experience, whether we live on the nation's coasts or its heartland" (Pew).
Climate Change
First, we acknowledge that the issue of global climate change is outside the scope of Mission 2011's proposed solutions. However, this is a matter of such global importance and potential impact that to not discuss the issue at all, even briefly, would have been negligent. Furthermore, we emphasize that slowing or stopping the progress of anthropogenic global warming is necessary. For more information on this topic we suggest visiting the website of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at <http://www.ipcc.ch>.
The Effects of Global Warming
The Effects of Global Warming
Over the past century and a half, the earth has seen a significant rise in average global temperatures (see Figure 1). Studies show that average surface temperatures have risen at the rate of approximately 0.1°C/decade, which is significant when compared to estimates of historical values (IPCC, 2001). Regardless of whether this temperature increase is primarily a result anthropogenic causes, such as as emission of greenhouse gases, or natural fluctuations, global warming will have a profound effect upon the oceans and should therefore be of great concern to anyone in charge of managing global fisheries. It is also very likely that global warming will accelerate in the near future due to positive feedback mechanisms, including the lowering of the EarthOver the past century and a half, the earth has seen a significant rise in average global temperatures (see Figure 1). Studies show that average surface temperatures have risen at the rate of approximately 0.1°C/decade, which is significant when compared to estimates of historical values (IPCC, 2001). Regardless of whether this temperature increase is primarily a result anthropogenic causes, such as as emission of greenhouse gases, or natural fluctuations, global warming will have a profound effect upon the oceans and should therefore be of great concern to anyone in charge of managing global fisheries. It is also very likely that global warming will accelerate in the near future due to positive feedback mechanisms, including the lowering of the Earth's albedo due to melting of polar caps (IPCC, 2001). Climate change is quite difficult to monitor, and even more difficult to predict accurately (see Figure 2). Despite this, research on current systems as well as research into past global warming events provides a general idea of what can be expected in future years. Knowledge of these general trends will allow us to better understand the effects and, consequently, better manage fisheries.
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Warming of the atmosphere is expected to result in intensified atmospheric pressure gradients. There is already evidence that this effect has increased the frequency and intensity of storms over recent years. Atmospheric conditions are largely responsible for surface currents, which transport water in the surface layers of the ocean where most of the biomass resides (Harley 2006). Modeling predicts that advection, the lateral movement of water, will increase as a result of global warming, especially in the oceans' eastern boundary currents. Increased advection is generally linked to decreased biomass (Harley biomass (Harley 2006). In some cases global warming has been linked to increases in the intensity of upwelling, as it has along the coast of California (Harley, 2006). Upwelling can often increase the biomass as it provides a source of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface, but a strong upwelling current can also be disruptive. It is also suggested that global warming could increase thermal stratification, which would decrease upwelling (Harley, 2006).
Climate change will likely change the geographical distribution of many species. For instance as temperature rises, many species will have to shift tohigher latitudes in order to remain under similar environmental conditions (Harley, 2006). These species shifts can introduce alien species to ecosystems where they had not been previously present, which can fundamentally alter these ecosystems. For instance, huge swarms of mauve stingers (Pelagia nocticula), which can devastate populations of fish, are becoming common in the waters off of Britain, where they had not been known until recent years (CNN, 2007). For some species, such as the Antarctic Icefish, there may be no higher latitudes to which they can move. For these species, climate change may well lead to extinction (Pauly 2007).
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One possible method of reacting to a specific negative effect of climate change - decreasing natural phytoplankton levels and debasing the ocean food chain - is "ocean fertilization" with finely powerdered. This allows high levels of phytoplankton growth in areas deficient in this nutrient (Jones & Young, 1997). There are significant technical problems related to this approach. Also, the large-scale effectiveness of iron fertilization is extremely speculative (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002). Hence, we do not advise this method until significantly more research has been conductedtechnical problems related to this approach. Also, the large-scale effectiveness of iron fertilization is extremely speculative (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002). Hence, we do not advise this method until significantly more research has been conducted.
Mitigation of Climate Change
We acknowledge that the issue of global climate change is outside the scope of Mission 2011's proposed solutions. However, this is a matter of such global importance and potential impact that to not discuss the issue at all, even briefly, would have been negligent. Furthermore, we emphasize that slowing or stopping the progress of anthropogenic global warming is necessary. For more information on this topic we suggest visiting the website of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at <http://www.ipcc.ch>.
Recommendations:
Figure 2. Range of future temperature predictions made by different models (IPCC, 2001)
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