Estimates of the mitigation costs associated with varying levels of emission reductions are generated through use of a response surface derived from runs of the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). These runs of IGSM were published in a 2007 study undertaken as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.
Overview
Model name Integrated Global System Model (IGSM)
Brief description
IGSM combines a sophisticated earth system model with the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a geographically disaggregated and sectorally complex integrated assessment model (IAM). The data on GDP under different emissions scenarios used in the response surfaces was generated by EPPA, so the remainder of this write-up focuses primarily on that part of IGSM.
Model developer(s)
EPPA developers include Z. Yang, Richard S. Eckaus,A. Denny Ellerman, Henry D. Jacoby, Mustafa H. Babiker, John M. Reilly, Monika Mayer, Ian Sue Wing, Robert C. Hyman, Sergey Paltsev, James McFarland, Marcus Sarofim, and Malcolm Asadoorian
Institutional affiliation of developer(s)
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Climate Change
Date created 1996
Date of most recent revision 2005
Model accessibility
EPPA is run in the lab, with results published in acadmic papers and reports issued by the Joint Center.
Documentation
- Sergey Paltsev, John M. Reilly, Henry D. Jacoby, Richard S. Eckaus, James McFarland, Marcus Sarofim, Malcolm Asadoorian and Mustafa Babiker. 2005. The MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis(EPPA) Model: Version 4. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Report No. 125
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- Andrei P. Sokolov, C. Adam Schlosser, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Sergey Paltsev, David W. Kicklighter, Henry D. Jacoby, Ronald G. Prinn, Chris E. Forest, John Reilly, Chien Wang, Benjamin Felzer, Marcus C. Sarofim, Jeff Scott, Peter H. Stone, Jerry M. Melillo and Jason Cohen. 2005. MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Report No. 124
Key publications
Leon E. Clarke, James A. Edmonds, Henry D. Jacoby, Hugh M. Pitcher, John M. Reilly, Richard G. Richels. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1a.
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Click herefor a complete list of publications issued in connection with this CCSP report, including public review comments and meeting minutes.
Model attributes
Model type
EPPA is an integrated assessment model. The earth systems model to which is it linked in IGSM is a general circulation model (GCM).
Geographic scope Global
Geographic resolution
16 regions (with greater detail possible for analysis of policies in Europe)
Start date 2000
End date 2100
Time step 5 years
Data sources
Detailed information on the data sources used in EPPA can be found in Paltsev et al. 2005 and Babiker et al. 2001.
Approach for addressing risk/uncertainty
The develelopers of the EPPA model address uncertainty by running the model with differing values for key variables and assessing the degree of variation in the model runs that result.
Key modules and linkages between them
Detailed information on all of EPPA's modules and the linkages between them can be found in Paltsev et al. 2005 and Babiker et al. 2001.
The module used in the Climate Collaboratorium is a response surface that shows the relationship between atmospheric concentration of CO2 and reduction in global gross domestic product in the emission stabilization scenarios when they are compared against the reference scenario. This response surface was based on runs of IGSM published in Clark et al. 2007|http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/finalreport/sap2-1a-final-all.pdf]. The steps undertaken in creating this response surface are outlined below in the section entitled "Variables and key assumptions."
Model structure
Variables and key assumptions
Input variables
Global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) at ten-year intervals between 2000 and 2100. (e.g. 2000, 2010, 2020, etc.)
Key assumptions
- The CCSP study (Clark et al. 2007|http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap2-1/finalreport/sap2-1a-final-all.pdf]) published results of 5 emission scenarios generated by runs of IGSM:
- Reference scenario, which assumed continuation of current reliance on fossil fuels
- 750 ppm stabilization scenario
- 650 ppm stabilization scenario
- 550 ppm stabilization scenario
- 450 ppm stabilization scenario
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- In creating this response surface, the Collaboratorium team seeks to provide users with a quick-running estimate of the relative environmental and economic tradeoffs involved in various proposals to address climate change. To address computational constraints, these response surfaces necessarily sacrifice precision. The Collaboratorium development team hopes to undertake senstivity analysis in the near future to assess how great a loss of precision results from the use of response surfaces like this one.
Output variables
Reduction in global gross domestic product (GDP) at the stated level of global atmospheric concentration of CO2 at ten-year intervals between 2000 and 2100 (e.g. 2000, 2010, 2020, etc.).
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