...
One possible method of reacting to a specific negative effect of climate change - decreasing natural phytoplankton levels and debasing the ocean food chain - is "ocean fertilization" with finely powerderedpowdered iron. This allows high levels of phytoplankton growth in areas deficient in this nutrient (Jones & Young, 1997). There are significant technical problems related to this approach. Also, the large-scale effectiveness of iron fertilization is extremely speculative (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002). Hence, we do not advise this method until significantly more research has been conducted.
...
Once trends have been determined, the plan for fishery conservation would then be modified in order to counteract whatever effects were being caused by the climate change. For instance, assuming our best predictions to be true, ecosystems would likely be able to support a smaller population of fish than they do currently. As soon as this realization comes about, restrictions must be changed to fit the reality of the situation. These changes could be made to a number of different restrictions such as technological restrictions, taxes, or closed areas. However, we propose that quotas would be most beneficial to have as direct an effect as possible on the fish populations, and thus should be used as the primary form of restriction. Quotas would allow for the most accurate control over the number of fish we are taking out of the environment, and allow the restrictions to be changed more easily when a new trend in climate change is foundThese changes should reflect the fact that the level at which fish can be harvested sustainably is lowered. The most important aspect of the plan with respect to climate change is that it has to modifiable, so that we can be constantly improving our approach as we improve our understanding of climate changes effects. If we are to this approach is most likely valid for other aspects of this problem as well. Even this approach, howeverThis approach, however, requires a great improvement in our understanding of fish population dynamics in order to be carried out effective.
Examples
Here are some predictions for possible future effects of climate change on certain areas:
...
A specific study of Orange Roughy, a highly fished species in deep waters in and around Eastern Australia and Western New Zealand (see maps below) is a salient study to illustrate the effects of climate on specific fisheries. Orange roughy typically live in geographic features in the ocean, such as seamounts and canyons, as shown by these two illustrations. They consume other fish, squids and crustaceans (Biology of Orange Roughy, 2002), which in turn consume Planktonplankton. The ocean climate around this area of the ocean is dominated by the East Australian Current (Cai et al., 2005). This current is expected to increase with projected climate change; on first glance, this appears beneficial for plankton, and by extension, Orange Roughy via intermediate trophic levels. However, this portion of the ocean is also expected to increase by roughly 2 degrees C (Haysa, Richardsonb, & Robinson, 2005). As a result, plankton may be displaced from their correct temperature, and since they can't migrate to other areas, they may be depleted. Monitoring needs to be implemented to discover how plankton levels are being affected. Also, the increased circulation should increase flow of nutrients to the deep ocean in Orange Roughy's habitat. Therefore, much monitoring needs to be implemented to discover how these factors will interact to affect Roughy population.
Western North American Coastal Zone
From 2003-2005, along the Northern California Current, on the West Coast of North America, went through a warming period similar to those related to ENSO, El Nino - Southern Oscillation events, however, southern waters were in an ENSO neutral state, accompanied by delayed upwelling and a lower plankton biomass (Peterson, 2006). Paleoclimatic data suggest that upwelling in the California current system is positively correlated with temperature over millennial timescales. Furthermore, upwelling along the California coast has increased over the past 30 years, and these increases are expected to continue. There is also the possibility, however, of the waters becoming increasingly stratified, which would likely result in a decrease in upwelling. It is also fairly certain that advection should increase in the California current (Harley, 2006). The upwelling could have a beneficial effect on the ecosystem if it is not too strong, but advection would likely have an adverse effect. One study links some of these changes to a decrease in the population growth rates of the northern California Chinook Salmon. The Salmon salmon numbers were negatively effected by increases in sea surface temperature, curl, scalar-wind and pseudo-wind stress, while positively effected by increased seasonal upwelling (Wells, 2007).
Based on this data, we predict that it is likely that the populations of fish in this region will be negatively affected by climate change. This would have to be taken into account and stricter enforcements would be needed to produce the same results that would be expected without climate change (Harley, 2006). This would most likely be done through changing the quotas placed on important species in by changing the number of fish that are allowed to be removed from the region. Technological restrictions and marine protected areas could also play a role. However, if the benefits of the upwelling are seen to be outweighing the harm done, these restrictions could probably be relaxed. Changing restrictions in this area should be relatively easy as there are already species-specific laws enforced in these waters by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC URL).
Western South America Coastal Zone
Coastal Fishery fisheries off of South America resides at reside in an upwelling zone. This upwelling goes through cycles during ENSO cycles. Mortality rates were highest during EN El-Nino events (Hernandez-Miranda, 2006). There is a chance that there could be a long toward shift in the climate towards the ENEl-Nino, which would most likely have a negative effect on fish populations (Collins, 2005). Another evaluation predicts global warming will ultimately lead to longer and weaker ENSO cycles. This occurs via complex interactions between currents and atmospheric circulation. If the first case occurs and the system shifts in the El Nino spectrum, then the fish populations in this region stand to be much lower than would be expected otherwise (Zhang, 2005). In the 1990's this region underwent several mild to moderate EN El-Nino events, without intervening LN La-Nina events (IPCC, 2001), perhaps indicative of the first case (shift toward El-Nino).
Temperature anomolies during an el nino El-Nino event (Image courtesy of CPC ENSO Main Page)
If this trend is the case then it would have to be taken into account and stricter enforcements would be needed to produce the same results that would be expected without climate change. The fisheries in these regions might also take additional hits during elEl-nino Nino years, so additional protection might be required for these years. If the second case happens , then (longer and weaker ENSO cycles), then climate change will most likely play a much smaller role in the management of this fishery, and plans can be carried out without too much modification for climate change. There is an ongoing debate in Peru regarding the creation of a Marine Protected Area (Working Paper, 2004), which could possibly be used to safeguard fish populations to a greater extent than they would in other regions. ENSO is also linked to changes in weather, which have effects on the terrestrial environment of Western South America. Floods and landslides in Peru during El-Nino years cause an increased mortality rate by 40% (IPCC, 2001).
...
These ecosystems also contribute to the livelihoods of coastal communities in Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles. The sustainable management of these sectors is crucial to the development of most nations, however, the complexities of marine systems and their associated scientific, economic, social, legal, and institutional issues make it difficult to implement effective management. Despite this, management systems that incorporate stakeholders in planning and implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs) and integrated coastal area management (ICAM) have been established in many WIO Western Indian Ocean countries (Wildlife Conservation Society).
...
A proper enforcement of the protection of reserves would achieve conservation of both representativeness (middle) and high diversity areas (edge). If necessary, there should be a collection of reserves that have the specific purpose of improving local yields of exploited species. The sizes of biodiversity reserves should be determined by local habitat heterogeneity and should be designed to maximize their benefit to adjacent areas while minimizing their size.
...
Climate change could cause an increase in severe weather, which could lead to an increased amount of precipitation. Costal Coastal fisheries could be effected affected by the increased amount of fresh water coming from the rivers. The "flushing rates" (where the fresh water and saltwater mix) could be effectedaffected. The estuaries are important nursing areas for fish and shellfish. Sea level change could have an effect on coastal erosion, resulting in the loss of costal coastal marsh habitats. Climate change may not have that great of an effect on offshore fish, such as tuna and mackerel, or bottom-oriented fish, such as snappers because they of their mobility. With the increase in temperature of the Gulf of Mexico there is a possibility to shift the "zone of inhabitance" of tropical species northward, which might cause a loss in resources for lower latitude fishing nations. (NOAA fisheries service, n.d) Some examples of fish that are being fished in the Gulf of Mexico are red snapper, mackerel, swordfish, grouper and tilefish. (Fisheries and aquaculture, n.d.) A specific country, Cuba, fishes high-valued finfish and shellfish. (Adams, n.d.)
...
The Southern Ocean (Antarctic Ocean) is important to managing climate change with respect to the worldwide ocean because the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) allows for mixing between the three great oceans. The ACC also serves to buffer Antarctica from the variable climate of higher latitudes (Gille 2002). Furthermore, Antarctic fish have a low tolerance for increases in temperature. This intolerance is due to the fact that in low temperature water, oxygen is more soluble in colder water than in warmer water, so Antarctica fish have a lower capacity for transporting oxygen in their blood, such as via mechanisms including their having fewer red blood cells. that The number of red blood cells possessed by these fish would not be sufficient at higher temperatures (Mark 2002). Since From the 1950's though the 1990's the water in the Southern Ocean has increased 0.17ºC±.06ºC. This , a greater change than the overall ocean (Gille 2002).
...
There is evidence of lower salinity in the North Atlantic coming from melting of polar ice caps and diluting the ocean with more fresh water. An increased amount of fresh water could come from glaciers or sea ice melting, an increased amount of precipitation, or from rivers. The freshening increase of freshwater in the oceans could have a damaging effect on the Ocean Conveyor (currents which transport warm water from the tropics to Northern latitudes on the surface; the water cools as it travels north, and then sinks and travels south again). There are different scenarios for the slowing down of the ocean conveyor Ocean Conveyor between the next two decade or in a hundred years (Gagosian, 2007). There is paleoclimatic evidence for rapid climatic changes as a result of the shut down of the ocean conveyorOcean Conveyor. If this were to happen, the Gulf Stream could possibly be deflected downwards, which would prevent the transfer of warm water from the tropics to the high Northern latitudes. In this scenario the high latitude would go through a very rapid cooling periods that could have devastating effects on the ecosystem (Gagosian, 2007). For this reason we assert that this region should be carefully monitored in order to recognize this trend early. There should also be a significant effort put into maintaining the robustness of the ecosystem in this area. To do this, restrictions placed on the fishery in this region should be higher than they would otherwise be set. If research proves this scenario is not the caseas severe as predicted, or that it change will happen on longer time scales, such restrictions would be able to could be scaled back.
Changes in Salinity in the North Atlantic (B. Dickson, et. al., in Nature, April 2002)
...
Scientists are using tropical foreign fish to gauge how fish around Australia and Tasmania will react to higher see sea temperatures. Also, they are trying to learn what smaller fish to feed the native fish in order to produce maximum size and yield. Researches have found that barramundi grow more quickly when fed lupins rather than smaller fish like anchovies. (Barra, 2007).
Another team of scientists studied how the depth of water and climate change related to fish populations. The science team examined 555 specimens ranging in age from two to 128 years, with birth years from 1861 to 1993. Growth rates of a coastal species, juvenile morwong, in the 1990s were 28.5 per cent faster than at the beginning of the period under assessment in the mid-1950s. By comparison, juvenile oreos, a species found at depths of around 1,000 meters, were growing 27.9 per cent slower than in the 1860s. There was no or little change in the growth rates of species found between 500 and 1,000 meters. correlations Correlations for long-lived shallow and deep-water species suggest that water temperatures have been a primary factor in determining juvenile growth rates in the species examined - Banded morwong, redfish, Jackass Morwong, Spiky, black, smooth and Warty Oreo and Orange roughy. In the southwest Pacific east of Tasmania sea surface temperatures have risen nearly two degrees, based on the results of a monitoring program at Maria Island. Coinciding with this has been a southward shift in South Pacific zonal winds, which has strengthened the warm, pole ward-flowing East Australian Current. (CSIRO, 2007).
...
Rising temperature of climate change is already noticeable in the deep layers of the Japan Sea and the shrinking ice of the Sea of Okhotsk, while rising sea levels have been occurring along Sanriku coasts and the Pacific Ocean side for the past 100 years. Southern plankton which have never been seen as north northerly as Japan now threatens oysters, shellfish, and sardinesardines, all of which are important to Japan's fishing industry. (Ichikawa, 104-105) The great change afflicted by even a few degrees rise in temperature is evident in the case of bluefin tuna. Able to spawn up to six degrees below its optimal temperature of 26 degrees Celsius, bluefin tuna, however, cannot spawn three degrees above that number. Based on the study and projection of Shingo Kimura, professor of marine environmental science at the University of Tokyo, tuna population, already hurt by overfishing, will be so exacerbated that populations will shrink to 37% its current levels by 2099. As Japan is the biggest supplies of bluefin tuna and given the internationality of the fishing industry, a decline in numbers hurt will also hurt China, South Korean, China, and the US. (Bluefin, 1) In a culture that is based on fishing, Japan faces not just the threat of environmental change but also of cultural change.
The increased carbon dioxide from combustion has in turn increased acidity Over the past two centuries, the pH of the ocean by 30%'s surface has decreased by .1, drastically altering the chemistry of the ocean. In the North Pacific waters, which is the most in general more acidic than other waters because it is colder, older, and absorbs more carbon, coral reef are being tested at saturation points, when growth cannot overcome disintegration due to ; this trend is predicted to continue with a decline of .3-.5 by 2100 if carbon dioxide emissions continue at 1,000 parts per million (Samuel Bowring (personal communication, November 24, 2007)). The result of increased acidity is more pronounced in the Pacific because of its cold water, which can dissolve more carbon dioxide. Coral reefs are more likely desintegrate at these levels of acidity. (Brenton, 1) In the Indo-Pacific waters, which hold 75% the world's coral reefs, researchers of at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill found in surveys found study decline, threatening a decline of coral reefs which threatens tourism, that coastal regions that once found safety behind the buffering reefs, and fisheries. (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1)
As Royce Pollard of Vancouver, Washington said, "The fish gave us our first indication." (Joling, 1) The effect of climate change on fisheries in many cases is a warning sign of more adverse effects to follow. In the case of Alaska salmon run failures of 1997-1998, Chinook salmon catch were only 43,500, half than that of the catch the year before. Though for For the next year, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game forecasted a catch of 24.8 million, and only 12.1 million were caught. Also in 1997-1998, Alaska experienced a 2.0 degrees Celsius increase in surface temperature and a 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius increase in deep ocean temperature. (Kruse , 61) Pacific white-dolphins, albacore, walleye Pollock, all southern species, were sighted in northern Gulf of Alaska. A sub-polar phytoplankton known as Coccolithophore blooms appeared suddenly, indicating high light intensity and low nutrients in the water. All these changes, which were already predicted in 1995 by ocean scientists who studied global warming on the Bering Sea, confirmed the need to understand more climate change in Alaska. (Kruse, 60) As a result, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and the Marine Conservation Alliance have closed US waters in the Arctic Ocean to fishing until enough research is present to understand climate change and until a management regime is put in place for climate change. (Marine Conservation Alliance, 1)
...
Gagosian, Robert B. (January 27, 2003). Abrupt Climate Change: Should We Be Worried? Retrieved October 26, 2007, from http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=9986+
Wiki Markup
Gille, S. T. (2002) "Warming of the Southern Ocean Since the 1950's" Science 295. 1275-1277.
...
Jones, P.D., T.J. Osborn, K.R. Briffa, C.K. Folland, E.B. Horton, L.V. Alexander, D.E. Parker and N.A. Rayner, 2001: Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 3371-3380.unmigrated-wiki-markup
Kruse, Gordon H. (1998). Salmon Run Failures in 1997-1998: A Link to Anomalous Ocean Conditions? \ [Electronic version\]. _Alaska_ _Fishery Research Bulletin_, Vol. 5 No. 1, 54-63.
Marine Conservation Alliance. (2007, June) International Agreement Needed to Protect Arctic Fisheries. Retrieved November 3, 2007 from http://www.marineconservationalliance.org/press/pr20070612.pdf.
...
Phytoplankton imaging and monitoring data from the Flow Cytometer And Microscope (FlowCAM). (2007, November). Retrieved November 17, 2007, from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center: http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/+unmigrated-wiki-markup
Spain, Glen H. (2007). Global Climate Change and the Fishing Industry. \ [Electronic Version\]. Fishermen's News of March. Retrieved November 1, 2007, from [http://www.pcffa.org/fn-mar07.htm].
UNEP. (2006). Ecosystem and Biodiversity in Deep Sea Waters and High Seas. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and Studies No. 178 .
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (2007, August 9). Indo-Pacific Coral Reefs Disappearing More Rapidly Than Expected. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 9, 2007, from http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070808082051.htm
Western Indian Ocean. (2007, November) Web extension to Wildlife Conservation Society. Retrieved on November 6, 2007 from http://www.wcs.org/sw-home.unmigrated-wiki-markup
Wilkinson, Clive. (2000, May 24) "Status of Coral Reefs of the World". Web extension to Australian Institute of Marine Sciences. \ [WWW Document\] URL [http://www.aims.gov.au/pages/research/coral-bleaching/scr1998/scr-004.html] (visited 2007, November 9)\+
Working Paper: Proposal for Marine Conservation by the Pronaturaleza Foundation: Mancora Bank, Tumbes/Piura, Peru (2004)
Zhang, Q., Yang, H., Zhong, Y., et all (2005). An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Nino--880.
Climate Changes Mitigation: (I don't know exactly where this should go)
Riparian buffer construction and preservation will help prevent damage from the increased precipitation and runoff predicted in some areas as predicted by climate models (see LINK TO RIPARIAN BUFFERS PAGE), as the overhead leaf cover helps to slow water velocity and the ground level vegetation helps slow the water velocity. Other methods that will also help decrease an increase in run-off pollution include the use of permeable asphault to encourage water infiltration and the use of different types of groundcovers in lawns (which currently act as impermeable surfaces when solely composed of dense grass)--see http://pcgroundcovers.com/groundcovers.html for examples of different types of groundcover. Education about well placement and use to prevent salt-water intrusion into freshwater should also be considered as a priority as sea-level rises become an issue.
...