PAGE simulates the economic and environmental impact of policies to address climate change. The launch verison of the Climate Collaboratorium uses only one a single module of PAGE, the one that assesses the economic cost of damages caused by climate change.
Overview
Model name Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect (PAGE)
Brief description PAGE projects future increases in global mean temperature (GMT), the economic costs of damanges caused by climate change, and the economic costs of mitigation policies and adaptation measures that are adopted.
Model developer(s) Chris Hope (with John Anderson, Paul Wenman, and Erica Plambeck)
Institutional affiliation of developer(s) Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
Date created 1991
Date of most recent revision 2002 (updated version known as PAGE2002)
Model accessibility Model is run in developer's lab to test various policy scenarios, with results published extensively (see list of publications below).
Documentation Chris Hope. 2006. The Marginal Impact of CO2 from PAGE 2002. Integrated Assessment Journal 6 (1): 9-56.
Key publications Simon Dietz, Chris Hope, Nicola Patmore. 2007. Some economics of 'dangerous' climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review. Global Environmental Change 17 (3-4): 311-325.
Nicholas Stern. 2006. The Economics of Climate Change, chapter 6, Economic modelling of climate-change impacts. London: HM Treasury.
Erica Plambeck and Chris Hope. 1996. PAGE95: An updated valuation of the impacts of global warming. Energy Policy 24 (9): 783-793.
Chris Hope, John Anderson and Paul Wenman. 1993. Policy analysis of the greenhouse effect: An application of the PAGE model| ]. Energy Policy 21 (3): 327-338.
Model attributes
Model type Damage function module of an integrated assessment model.
Geographic scope Global
Geographic resolution 8 regions (European Union, Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, China and Centrally Planned Asia, India and Southeast Asia, Africa and Middle East, Latin America, Other OECD)
Start date 2000
End date 2200
Time step Various (analysis years are 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2200, 2040, 2060, 2080, 2100, 2150, 2200)
Data sources List of the key data sources used in the model, with links if possible
Approach for addressing risk/uncertainty Brief phrase describing how model deals with risk/uncertainty e.g. stochastic modeling approach, estimations of uncertainty based on variances in input values for discrete variables etc.
Key modules and linkages between them
Note: Include only if multiple modules, and if so, include next major header, “Variables and key assumptions,” for each
Model structure Describe in words or insert model diagram if one is available. Graphics files, such as jpeg's and gif's, can be inserted by using the picture icon in the upper left corner of the editing screen (under the tab labeled "Wiki Markup"). By default, pictures are initially inserted at the bottom of the wiki page, but they can subsequently be moved by cutting and pasting the file name and surrounding formatting characters.
This write up of PAGE includes three major sections:
- PAGE overview
- PAGE attributes
- PAGE modules
- Economic costs of damages
- Non-econonomic costs of damages
- Impact of adaptation
Variables and key assumptions
Input variables
Key assumptions Explain in words and include equations if available
Output variables
Note: As noted above, if there are multiple modules, include section like this for each, with module name at start of header, followed by a colon.
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