Model type Damage function module of an integrated assessment model.
Geographic scope Global
Geographic resolution
8 regions (European Union, Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union, China and Centrally Planned Asia, India and Southeast Asia, Africa and Middle East, Latin America, Other OECD)
Start date 2000
End date 2200
Time step Various (analysis years are 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010, 2200, 2040, 2060, 2080, 2100, 2150, 2200)
Data sources
The PAGE damage function relies heavily on estimates prepared by IPCC Working Group II for the Third Assessment Report (TAR). See IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In particular, it makes use of chapter 19, Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis
Approach for addressing risk/uncertainty
PAGE is a stochastic model. 31 of its key input variables are defined not by a single value, but rather, as a probability distribution comprised of a range of possible values. For each such variable a minimum, maximum, mean, and mode is defined.
Each time the model analyzes a new scenario, it is run 1000 times, with the value of the uncertain variables selected randomly for each run.
The 1000 model runs result in 1000 values for each key output variable. These results are typically reported in a probabilistic manner. The mean, or average, result is typcially reported. And sometimes two other values are used to show the shape of the distribution: the value for which 5% of the runs are lower and for which 95% of the runs are lower (hese are called the 5% and 95% values).
Key modules and linkages between them
In the PAGE model, the overall damages from climate change are derived by combining four factors:
- Costs of damages to economic activity caused by climate change
- Costs of non-economic damages caused by climate change
- Costs of large-scale discontinuities
- Impact of mitigation (costs of mitigation measures less reduction in damages resulting from mitigation measures)
Model structure Describe in words or insert model diagram if one is available. Graphics files, such as jpeg's and gif's, can be inserted by using the picture icon in the upper left corner of the editing screen (under the tab labeled "Wiki Markup"). By default, pictures are initially inserted at the bottom of the wiki page, but they can subsequently be moved by cutting and pasting the file name and surrounding formatting characters.