"We depend on the oceans---for food, jobs, recreation and solace. Ocean currents circulate the energy and water that regulate the earth's climate and weather and thus affect many aspects of the human experience, whether we live on the nation's coasts or its heartland" (Pew).
Climate Change
Over the past century and a half, the earth has seen a significant rise in average global temperatures. Studies show that average surface temperatures have risen at the rate of approximately 0.1°C/decade, which is significant when compared to estimates of historical changes (IPCC, 2001). Whether this temperature change is primarily a result of anthropogenic influences such as the emission of greenhouse gases, or of natural fluctuations in climate, global warming will have a profound effect upon the oceans and should therefore be of great concern to anyone with a stake in global fisheries. It is also very likely that global warming will accelerate in the near future due to positive feedback mechanisms (IPCC, 2001). Climate change is somewhat difficult to monitor, and even more difficult to predict accurately. Despite this, research on current systems as well as research into past global warming events provides us with an idea of what can be expected in future years. Through knowledge of the general trends of climate change, an understanding of their effects on fisheries can begin to be developed.
Annual anomalies of global average land-surface air temperature (Jones et al., 2001).
The melting of glacial ice and the thermal expansion of ocean water will cause sea levels to rise in future years. While this is unlikely to have a global effect on ocean life, there are some local cases cases where the change might be too fast for ecosystems to adapt. For example, when slow growing corals cannot grow quickly enough to counteract the rise in sea level, reefs can fall below the photic zone and perish (Harley, 2006).
Many biological processes are temperature dependent and could be adversely affected by even a few degrees of temperature change (Harley, 2006). Higher temperature waters, such as those in the tropics have less primary production in the form of phytoplankton, which almost all fish derive their energy from. This results largely due to the fact that a higher temperature gradient prevents upwelling of cool, nutrient rich waters, as is common during the warm periods of the ENSO cycle off Peru and Chile (Harley, 2006). A drop in the amount of primary production causes a drop in the higher trophic levels as well. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict in many cases this will cause the populations of stocks to decrease Addition of fresh water from melting ice caps decreases surface salinities in ocean regions, which can be detrimental to species with low tolerances to changes in salinity (Harley, 2006).
Projected surface temperature changes by 2099. ("Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis," 2001)
Climate change has the potential to cause changes in water chemistry, especially with regards to oxygen solubility and the carbonate buffering cycles. Such changes may have drastic effects on certain species. As seawater warms, the solubility of most gases in it decrease. One of these gases is oxygen, which is essential to all animals for respiration (Harley, 2006). Geological records from past global warming events has shown evidence of severe, large-scale hypoxic episodes (Bralower, 2002). A significant, eustatic drop in dissolved oxygen levels would detrimentally influence species worldwide. On the other hand, deep waters are generally not saturated in carbon dioxide. The ocean thus has an enormous capacity as a carbon dioxide sink. However, as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise, the equilibrium of the carbonate-bicarbonate-carbonic acid cycle will be shifted towards increasing water acidity (Harley, 2006). Ocean acidification would have detrimental effects on sea life, including important calcareous primary producers, such as coccolithophores.
The introduction of fresh water from melting ice caps can also affect thermohaline circulation. Since fresh water is less dense than salt water, it floats on the surface in high latitude regions. This cap prevents the sinking of water in regions of downwelling, thus weakening or stopping the overturn of the ocean. Current models predict that a shutdown of downwelling in the North Atlantic could occur soon and lead to a shutdown of global ocean circulation (Gagosian 2007). A shutdown of global thermohaline circulation is likely to cause rapid and severe changes in climate, with similar changes in temperature to what has been recorded over the past century occurring on the scale of decades (Gagosian 2007).
Warming of the atmosphere is expected to result in intensified atmospheric pressure gradients. There is already some evidence that this has resulted in increased storm frequency and intensity over recent years. Atmospheric conditions are largely responsible for surface currents, which transport water in the surface layers of the ocean where most of the biomass resides (Harley 2006). Modeling predicts that advection, lateral movement of water, will increase as a result of global warming, especially in eastern boundary currents. Increased advection is generally linked to decreased biomass (Harley 2006).
Climate change will likely change the distribution of many species. For instance as temperature rises, many species will begin shift towards higher latitudes in order to remain under similar environmental conditions (Harley, 2006). This shifting of species allows the introduction of alien species to ecosystems where they were not previously present, which can fundamentally alter ecosystems. For instance, huge swarms of mauve stingers (Pelagia nocticula), which can devastate populations of fish, are becoming common in the waters off of Britain, where they had not been known until recent years (CNN, 2007).
Another adverse effect from global warming is coral bleaching. When corals are stressed by high water temperatures or other effects, they expel their symbiotic zooxanthelle from their tissues. This process deprives corals of the color, as well of their primary source of nutrition. If corals are without their symbionts for too long they can perish from starvation. The impact of coral death can spread through the reef ecosystem. Secondary effects are most obvious in fish, especially among those that feed specifically on corals, such as butterfly fish. These fish were gradually starving to death and the decline in numbers indicated they had also failed to breed in the months and years following the destruction of their reef. As it stands today, more than 30% of coral reefs throughout the world are already severely degraded and up to 60% of corals may be lost by 2030 due to temperature induced bleaching (ARC, 2007).
It is also likely that climate change will have severe, direct effects on humans. Thermal expansion of seawater alone is expected to cause a rise of 0.09 to 0.37 m over the next century (IPCC, 2001). This modest sounding rise is enough to threaten many coastal cities. It is also predicted that storms, such as monsoons and hurricanes, may increase in number and intensity as a result of global warming (IPCC, 2001). Global warming can affect land-based agriculture in certain areas by changing precipitation. Desertification is a major threat in areas such as the southwestern United States (IPCC 2001). Increased carbon dioxide levels will also alter the growth rates of crops and weeds. In certain environments, changes in the productivity of traditional agriculture could lead to a changes in fish demand.
One possible method of reacting to a specific negative effect of climate change - decreasing natural phytoplankton levels and debasing the ocean food chain - is "ocean fertilization" with Iron. This allows high levels of phytoplankton growth in areas deficient in this nutrient (Jones & Young, 1997). Due to the unknown negative effects of this technique in large amounts (Chisholm, Falkowsi, & Cullen, 2002), we do not advise this method only in very specific, controlled cases to determine its benefits and effects.
Range of future temperature predictions made by different models (IPCC, 2001)
There is a large amount of uncertainty in the future of climate change. Although predictions can be made about what will happen, no one is sure exactly how global warming will effect the oceans and fish populations. However, the climate change should be an important consideration in any plan for fisheries management. It is important to be aware that climate will not change uniformly over the entire globe. For instance, the effects of global warming are likely to be more pronounced in the high latitude regions. Thus, any recommendations must be designed specifically for different regions of the world. Of course, such customizations are reliant on accurate, comprehensive data, which is often not availible. Hence, we propose that a global system be set up for collecting and analyzing data as global warming progresses. Many types of biological, physical, and geological data are needed to better predict the future climate of various regions. Also, more work has to be done to quantitatively determine how fish populations react to climate change. As these data are monitored and studied over longer time periods, trends may begin to appear which shed light on these critical questions.
Once trends have been determined the plan for fishery conservation would then be modified in order to counteract whatever effects were being caused by the climate change. For instance, with many of the predicted changes, the ecosystem could be able to support a smaller population of fish than it does currently. As soon as this realization comes about, restrictions must be changed to fit the reality of the situation. These changes could be made to a number of different restrictions such as technological restrictions, taxes, or closed areas, but we propose it would be most beneficial to have as direct an effect as possible on the fish populations. For this reason we propose using quotas as our main form of restriction. This would allow for the most accurate control over the number of fish we are taking out of the environment, and allow the restrictions to be changed more easily when a new trend in climate change is found. The most important aspect of the plan with respect to climate change is that it has to modifiable, so that we can be constantly improving our approach as we improve our understanding of climate changes effects. If we are to this approach is most likely valid for other aspects of this problem as well. This approach, however, would require a great improvement in our understanding of fish population dynamics. Therefore, it would be prudent to apply other restrictions until this point is reaches.
While we believe it to be beyond the scope of our project, we realize that it is also necessary to slow the progress of anthropogenic global warming. This aspect of global warming, however, is being extensively researched by many other groups. For more information on the subject we suggest visiting The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's website, (http://www.ipcc.ch/).
Here are some predictions for possible future effects of climate change on certain areas:
Deep-Ocean
The deep seas and international waters outside of EEZs (Exclusive Economic Zones) are being increasingly fished; species such as the orange roughy, tuna, and shark are three major targets in these areas. Many such organisms are especially vulnerable to overfishing due to their long reproductive cycles; orange roughy, for example, have been found to live up to 150 years (Orange Roughy: delicacy from the deep, 2003). Much of deep-sea life is localized to specific areas called "hot spots," centered around particular conditions including temperature, salinity, and seamounts (mountains submerged in the ocean) (UNEP, 2006). This makes deep-sea creatures particularly vulnerable to climate change.
Plankton is the basic food source for many of these creatures, including fish larvae (Haysa, Richardsonb, & Robinson, 2005). Plankton must follow ocean currents, and are dependent on certain atmospheric conditions. It has already been found that increasing ocean temperatures affect plankton levels through ENSO cycle studies (Haysa, Richardsonb, & Robinson, 2005). However, whether plankton will be enhanced or depleted by predicted climate changes on a global scale is unknown.
The addition of CO2 to ocean compositions is one factor leading to uncertainty. It has been projected that this could selectively kill some specific plankton species while benefiting others; also, CO 2 benefits plankton during photosynthesis but an excess of bicarbonate from the same dissolved CO2 ¬would lower pH and have negative effects on plankton. Thus, the final solution for maintaining deep-sea fisheries needs to be flexible enough to react to these two possible outcomes, and call upon monitoring services to ascertain plankton level fluctuations, such as FlowCAM (Phytoplankton imaging and monitoring data from the Flow Cytometer And Microscope (FlowCAM), 2007).
Plankton depends on strong currents to circulate organic matter throughout the ocean; deep-sea species especially depend on these currents to transport Plankton (Haysa, Richardsonb, & Robinson, 2005). Exactly how currents will be affected globally is unknown and location-specific; for example, the East Australian Current, discussed below, is projected to increase, but many others are projected to decrease.
A specific study of Orange Roughy, a highly fished species in deep waters in and around Eastern Australia and Western New Zealand (see maps below) is a salient study to illustrate the effects of climate on specific fisheries. Orange roughy typically live in geographic features in the ocean, such as seamounts and canyons, as shown by these two illustrations. They consume other fish, squids and crustaceans (Biology of Orange Roughy, 2002), which in turn consume Plankton. The ocean climate around this area of the ocean is dominated by the East Australian Current (Cai et al., 2005). This current is expected to increase with projected climate change; on first glance, this appears beneficial for plankton, and by extension, Orange Roughy via intermediate trophic levels. However, this portion of the ocean is also expected to increase by roughly 2 degrees C (Haysa, Richardsonb, & Robinson, 2005). As a result, plankton may be displaced from their correct temperature, and since they can't migrate to other areas, may be depleted. Monitoring needs to be implemented to discover how plankton levels are being affected. Also, the increased circulation should increase flow of nutrients to the deep ocean in Orange Roughy's habitat. Therefore, much monitoring needs to be implemented to discover how these factors will interact to affect Roughy population.
Western North American Coastal Zone
From 2003-2005, along the Northern California Current, on the West Coast of North America, went through a warming period similar to those related to ENSO, El Nino - Southern Oscillation events, however, southern waters were in an ENSO neutral state, accompanied by delayed upwelling and a lower plankton biomass (Peterson, 2006). Paleoclimatic data suggest that upwelling in the California current system is positively correlated with temperature over millennial timescales. Furthermore, upwelling along the California coast has increased over the past 30 years, and these increases are expected to continue. It is also fairly certain that advection should increase in the California current (Harley, 2006). The upwelling could have a beneficial effect on the ecosystem if it is not too strong, but advection would likely have an adverse effect. One study links some of these changes to a decrease in the population growth rates of the northern California Chinook Salmon. The Salmon numbers were negatively effected by increases in sea surface temperature, curl, scalar-wind and pseudo-wind stress, while positively effected by increased seasonal upwelling (Wells, 2007).
Based on this data, we predict that it is likely that the populations of fish in this region will be negatively affected by climate change. This would have to be taken into account and stricter enforcements would be needed to produce the same results that would be expected without climate change (Harley, 2006). This would most likely be done through changing the quotas placed on important species in the region. Technological restrictions and marine protected areas could also play a role. However, if the benefits of the upwelling are seen to be outweighing the harm done, these restrictions could probably be relaxed. Changing restrictions in this area should be relatively easy as there are already species-specific laws enforced in these waters by the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC URL).
Western South America Coastal Zone
Coastal Fishery off of South America resides at an upwelling zone. This upwelling goes through cycles during ENSO cycles. Mortality rates were highest during EN events (Hernandez-Miranda, 2006). There is a chance that there could be a long toward shift in the climate towards the EN, which would most likely have a negative effect on fish populations (Collins, 2005). Another evaluation predicts global warming will ultimately lead to longer and weaker ENSO cycles. This occurs via complex interactions between currents and atmospheric circulation. If the first case occurs and the system shifts in the El Nino spectrum, then the fish populations in this region stand to be much lower than would be expected otherwise (Zhang, 2005). In the 1990's this region underwent several mild to moderate EN events, without intervening LN events (IPCC, 2001), perhaps indicative of the first case.
Temperature anomolies during an el nino event (Image courtesy of CPC ENSO Main Page)
If this trend is the case then it would have to be taken into account and stricter enforcements would be needed to produce the same results that would be expected without climate change. The fisheries in these regions might also take additional hits during el-nino years, so additional protection might be required for these years. If the second case happens, then climate change will most likely play a much smaller role in the management of this fishery, and plans can be carried out without too much modification for climate change. There is an ongoing debate in Peru regarding the creation of a Marine Protected Area (Working Paper, 2004), which could possibly be used to safeguard fish populations to a greater extent than they would in other regions. ENSO is also linked to changes in weather, which have effects on the terrestrial environment of Western South America. Floods and landslides in Peru during El-Nino years cause an increased mortality rate by 40% (IPCC, 2001).
Western Indian Ocean
Some problems that are facing the marine ecosystems around Africa include the competitive displacement of indigenous species due to invasive species, the destruction of natural habitats due to fishnets dragging along the ocean floor, the depletion of coral reefs due to global warming, over fishing, and illegal fishing.
One of the greatest threats to life in the sea is resource exploitation by man. In Africa, marine conservation is secondary to terrestrial conservation. Only four countries in sub-Saharan Africa have marine reserves. Marine reserves are effective in increasing population sizes of exploited stocks and supplementing stocks in adjacent areas through emigration. They also have the potential to provide recruits to exploited areas (Wilkinson URL).
These ecosystems also contribute to the livelihoods of coastal communities in Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles. The sustainable management of these sectors is crucial to the development of most nations, however, the complexities of marine systems and their associated scientific, economic, social, legal, and institutional issues make it difficult to implement effective management. Despite this, management systems that incorporate stakeholders in planning and implementation of marine protected areas (MPAs) and integrated coastal area management (ICAM) have been established in many WIO countries (Wildlife Conservation Society).
The primary threat to marine systems in the region is increased unsustainable and destructive fishing as a result of population growth coupled with management systems that do not effectively support sustainable fisheries. Fishing pressure and other threats, including sedimentation, coastal development, and unsustainable management practices are leading to losses in marine biodiversity, decreased fisheries, and changes in ecosystem diversity and community structure.
Coral reefs are also particularly threatened by climate change effects such as bleaching (WCS). The status of reefs in the Western Indian Ocean ranges from those in virtually pristine condition, such as the atolls in mid-ocean, to reefs that are heavily impacted by human activities, such as those fringing the coasts of East Africa and Madagascar. Extensive clearing of land and forests in Kenya, Tanzania, and Madagascar has led to excessive sediment runoff, which has damaged many reefs. In addition, there is over-fishing, including the use of explosives, so that these reefs are in medium to poor condition (Wilkinson URL).
Some reefs on Mauritius have been impacted by sediment runoff from sugar cane farming, and by over-fishing, whereas the reefs of the Comoros and Seychelles are mostly in good to very good condition, except immediately adjacent to large population centers. Reef management is not well developed. Rapidly increasing populations and tourism are contributing to reef destruction. Recently there has been significant progress in reef management in the Seychelles, Mauritius, Kenya, and Tanzania, particularly in establishing marine protected areas for tourism. Efforts at increasing community-level management are proving successful in some areas of Kenya and Tanzania (WCS).
A proper enforcement of the protection of reserves would achieve conservation of both representativeness (middle) and high diversity areas (edge). If necessary there should be a collection of reserves that have the specific purpose of improving local yields of exploited species. The sizes of biodiversity reserves should be determined by local habitat heterogeneity and should be designed to maximize their benefit to adjacent areas while minimizing their size.
Gulf of Mexico
Climate change could cause an increase in severe weather, which could lead to an increased amount of precipitation. Costal fisheries could be effected by the increased amount of fresh water coming from the rivers. The "flushing rates" (where the fresh water and saltwater mix) could be effected. The estuaries are important nursing areas for fish and shellfish. Sea level change could have an effect on coastal erosion resulting in the loss of costal marsh habitats. Climate change may not have that great of an effect on offshore fish, such as tuna and mackerel, or bottom-oriented fish, such as snappers because they of their mobility. With the increase in temperature of the Gulf of Mexico there is a possibility to shift the "zone of inhabitance" of tropical species northward, which might cause a loss in resources for lower latitude fishing nations. (NOAA fisheries service, n.d) Some examples of fish that are being fished in the Gulf of Mexico are red snapper, mackerel, swordfish, grouper and tilefish. (Fisheries and aquaculture, n.d.) A specific country, Cuba, fishes high-valued finfish and shellfish. (Adams, n.d.)
Southern Ocean
The Southern Ocean (Antarctic Ocean) is important to managing climate change with respect to the worldwide ocean because the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) allows for mixing between the three great oceans. The ACC also serves to buffer Antarctica from the variable climate of higher latitudes (Gille 2002). Furthermore, Antarctic fish have a low tolerance for increases in temperature. This intolerance is due to the fact that in low temperature water, oxygen is more soluble in colder water than in warmer water, so Antarctica fish have a lower capacity for transporting oxygen in their blood, such as having fewer red blood cells. that would not be sufficient at higher temperatures (Mark 2002). Since the 1950's though the 1990's the water in the Southern Ocean has increased 0.17ºC±.06ºC. This a greater change than the overall ocean (Gille 2002).
North Atlantic
There is evidence of lower salinity in the North Atlantic coming from melting of polar ice caps and diluting the ocean with more fresh water. An increased amount of fresh water could come from glaciers or sea ice melting, an increased amount of precipitation or from rivers. The freshening of the oceans could have a damaging effect on the Ocean Conveyor. There are different scenarios for the slowing down of the ocean conveyor between the next two decade or in a hundred years (Gagosian, 2007). There is paleoclimatic evidence for rapid climatic changes as a result of the shut down of the ocean conveyor. If this were to happen, the Gulf Stream could possibly be deflected downwards, which would prevent the transfer of warm water from the tropics to the high Northern latitudes. In this scenario the high latitude would go through a very rapid cooling periods that could have devastating effects on the ecosystem (Gagosian, 2007). For this reason we assert that this region should be carefully monitored in order to recognize this trend early. There should also be a significant effort put into maintaining the robustness of the ecosystem in this area. To do this, restrictions placed on the fishery in this region should be higher than they would otherwise be set. If research proves this scenario is not the case, or that it will happen on longer time scales, such restrictions would be able to be scaled back.
Changes in Salinity in the North Atlantic (B. Dickson, et. al., in Nature, April 2002)
Current Currents in the Northern Latitudes (Illustration by Jack Cook, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Australia
Studies have shown that coastal waters will warm by up to two degrees by 2030, encouraging fish to move south, threatening marine turtles, and potentially pushing box jellyfish down the east coast. Of all coasts of Australia, eastern-central and southeast domains were the most vulnerable to the impact of climate change. The movement of box jellyfish is particularly alarming because some species of these jellyfish are potentially fatal to humans. Most fishermen are only licensed to catch prawns and shrimp, as amateur fishing bans are already in place (Hannon, 2007).
Scientists are using tropical foreign fish to gauge how fish around Australia and Tasmania will react to higher see temperatures. Also they are trying to learn what smaller fish to feed the native fish in order to produce maximum size and yield. Researches have found that barramundi grow more quickly when fed lupins rather than smaller fish like anchovies. (Barra, 2007).
Another team of scientists studied how the depth of water and climate change related to fish populations. The science team examined 555 specimens ranging in age from two to 128 years, with birth years from 1861 to 1993. Growth rates of a coastal species, juvenile morwong, in the 1990s were 28.5 per cent faster than at the beginning of the period under assessment in the mid-1950s. By comparison, juvenile oreos, a species found at depths of around 1,000 meters, were growing 27.9 per cent slower than in the 1860s. There was no or little change in the growth rates of species found between 500 and 1,000 meters. correlations for long-lived shallow and deep-water species suggest that water temperatures have been a primary factor in determining juvenile growth rates in the species examined - Banded morwong, redfish, Jackass Morwong, Spiky, black, smooth and Warty Oreo and Orange roughy. In the southwest Pacific east of Tasmania sea surface temperatures have risen nearly two degrees, based on the results of a monitoring program at Maria Island. Coinciding with this has been a southward shift in South Pacific zonal winds, which has strengthened the warm, pole ward-flowing East Australian Current. (CSIRO, 2007).
North Pacific
Rising temperature of climate change is already noticeable in the deep layers of the Japan Sea and the shrinking ice of the Sea of Okhotsk, while rising sea levels have been occurring along Sanriku coasts and the Pacific Ocean side for the past 100 years. Southern plankton never been seen as north as Japan now threatens oysters, shellfish and sardine, all of which are important to Japan's fishing industry. (Ichikawa, 104-105) The great change afflicted by even a few degrees rise in temperature is evident in the case of bluefin tuna. Able to spawn up to six degrees below its optimal temperature of 26 degrees Celsius, bluefin tuna, however, cannot spawn three degrees above that number. Based on the study and projection of Shingo Kimura, professor of marine environmental science at the University of Tokyo, tuna population, already hurt by overfishing, will be so exacerbated that populations will shrink to 37% its current levels by 2099. As Japan is the biggest supplies of bluefin tuna and given the internationality of the fishing industry, a decline in numbers hurt will also hurt China, South Korean, China, and the US. (Bluefin, 1) In a culture that is based on fishing, Japan faces not just the threat of environmental change but also of cultural change.
The increased carbon dioxide from combustion has in turn increased acidity of the ocean by 30%, drastically altering the chemistry of the ocean. In the North Pacific waters, which is the most in general more acidic than other waters because it is colder, older, and absorbs more carbon, coral reef are being tested at saturation points, when growth cannot overcome disintegration due to acidity. (Brenton, 1) In the Indo-Pacific waters, which hold 75% the world's coral reefs, researchers of University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill found in surveys found study decline, threatening tourism, that coastal regions that once found safety behind the buffering reefs, and fisheries. (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 1)
As Royce Pollard of Vancouver, Washington said, "The fish gave us our first indication." (Joling, 1) The effect of climate change on fisheries in many cases is a warning sign of more adverse effects to follow. In the case of Alaska salmon run failures of 1997-1998, Chinook salmon catch were only 43,500, half than that of the catch the year before. Though for the next year, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game forecasted a catch of 24.8 million, only 12.1 million were caught. Also in 1997-1998, Alaska experienced a 2.0 degrees Celsius increase in surface temperature and a 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius increase in deep ocean temperature. (Kruse , 61) Pacific white-dolphins, albacore, walleye Pollock, all southern species, were sighted in northern Gulf of Alaska. A sub-polar phytoplankton known as Coccolithophore blooms appeared suddenly, indicating high light intensity and low nutrients in the water. All these changes, which were already predicted in 1995 by ocean scientists who studied global warming on the Bering Sea, confirmed the need to understand more climate change in Alaska. (Kruse, 60) As a result, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and the Marine Conservation Alliance have closed US waters in the Arctic Ocean to fishing until enough research is present to understand climate change and until a management regime is put in place for climate change. (Marine Conservation Alliance, 1)
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Climate Changes Mitigation: (I don't know exactly where this should go)
Riparian buffer construction and preservation will help prevent damage from the increased precipitation and runoff predicted in some areas as predicted by climate models (see LINK TO RIPARIAN BUFFERS PAGE), as the overhead leaf cover helps to slow water velocity and the ground level vegetation helps slow the water velocity. Other methods that will also help decrease an increase in run-off pollution include the use of permeable asphault to encourage water infiltration and the use of different types of groundcovers in lawns (which currently act as impermeable surfaces when solely composed of dense grass)--see http://pcgroundcovers.com/groundcovers.html for examples of different types of groundcover. Education about well placement and use to prevent salt-water intrusion into freshwater should also be considered as a priority as sea-level rises become an issue.