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We can perform an energy balance at the surface:

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body\text{Heat Flux into surface} = \text{Heat Flux leaving surface}

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body\text{Convection In} + \text{Radiation In} = \text{Conduction into material}

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body\dot{q}_{conv} + \epsilon \sigma (T_{free}^4 - T_w^4) = \kappa (\frac{dT}{dx})_w

 

where 

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bodyT_{free}
 is the free stream air temperature at the altitude of interest, 
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bodyT_w
 is the wall temperature, 
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body\kappa = \frac{k}{\rho_0 C}
 is the thermal diffusivity which uses 
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bodyk
the thermal conductivity, 
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body\rho_0
 the material density, and 
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bodyC
 the specific heat capacity of there material. Therefore, to use this equation to solve for the wall temperature, we would need to know the convective heat transfer rate, and the gradient of temperature at the wall.

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While we could do a full 3D unsteady thermal simulation of the tip, we should first develop a first order approximation. I convert the problem into a 1D problem, and apply the convective heat flux we calculated above and radiation. So we model the nose cone as:

 

and now we can write the heat equation in 1D:

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body\frac{dT}{dt} = \kappa \nabla^2 T = \kappa \frac{d^2 T}{dx^2}

and when this is solved the gradient $dT/dx$ can be found